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An individual earned a substantial sum from wagers on the downfall of Nicolás Maduro shortly prior to it was made public, raising questions about the possibility of profiting from confidential information of the US operation.

Changing Odds in Wagers

Wagers on Polymarket, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the month's conclusion surged in the hours before former President Trump announced on the weekend that the Venezuelan leader had been apprehended.

A single trader, which joined the platform in December and made four bets, all on Venezuela, made more than $436,000 from a initial bet of $32,537.

The identity is unknown. The anonymous account had only a blockchain identifier for identification.

Odds Fluctuate Before Public Statement

Trading information shows that participants put the odds of a political change at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of the Friday before the event.

But the market's assessment had climbed to 11% by the end of the day and surged in the first hours of the next day, suggesting a sharp shift in betting activity right before the official statement was made.

"That trade has all the hallmarks of a transaction based on non-public details," said an industry expert.

A handful of other traders also earned significant sums from similar wagers.

Legal Questions Grows

Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention.

A bill presented on recently seeks to ban federal workers from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market.

Industry Context

Forecasting platforms have surged in popularity in recent years, with users able to wager on everything from sports to political events.

Prediction markets encountered regulatory challenges under the previous administration. But it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency.

Insider trading is against the law in the traditional financial markets, but there are fewer regulations in the forecasting space.

A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "has clear rules against insider trading of any form."